Gateway to Learning

This report examines the expansion path of prediction markets from crypto-native origins to mainstream distribution, using the compliant platform Kalshi and its brokerage distribution model as a case study. It highlights that regulatory licensing and distribution access are becoming the core variables determining scale: once event options are embedded into brokerage account systems, trading barriers are significantly reduced, and platform growth becomes closely tied to channel efficiency.

Gate Research Daily Report: On Feb 2, crypto markets broadly fell as pullbacks in stocks and gold/silver weighed on risk appetite, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 14—its lowest level this year. BTC is consolidating near the lows after a capitulation wick, with $75K as key support and $80K as major resistance; ETH underperformed, with $2,200 as the critical line—if it breaks, downside targets shift to $2,150 and $2,000. Despite the weak tape, POKT, LMTS, and AVA outperformed on their respective catalysts. Key narratives included prediction markets posting a record $12B+ in January volume, the AI-agent narrative spilling into Clanker and boosting token launches/trading activity, and renewed risk debate in the meme sector after Murad’s reported ~$58M six-month drawdown.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 30, the crypto market came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $82,000 and briefly dipping to around $81,000, while Ether retreated to the $2,700 level and remained technically weak. GT declined in tandem but showed relatively resilient downside, consolidating around the $9.20–$9.30 support zone. Despite weakness in major assets, selective capital rotation persisted, with small-cap tokens such as SENT and GWEI posting strong gains driven by AI and Ethereum infrastructure narratives. Meanwhile, a tech-led selloff fueled a cross-market risk-off move, alongside notable industry developments including Bit Digital’s exit from Bitcoin mining and the revival of The DAO with a $220 million Ethereum security fund.