Gate Institutional Weekly: Oil Supply Shock Intensifies, Meteora Trade Sees Significant Growth (Mar. 16–Mar. 22, 2026)

Global markets have shifted into a risk-off mode as expectations for higher interest rates converge with intensifying geopolitical tensions. Rising US Treasury yields are weighing on risk asset valuations. Precious metals, after a previous rally, have pulled back sharply, while the crypto market has weakened in tandem, with BTC dropping below $70,000. Meanwhile, oil prices have remained resilient amid potential supply shock concerns, with energy factors continuing to disrupt the inflation outlook. In summary, macroeconomic variables have once again taken the lead in market pricing, and risk appetite has contracted significantly.

Last Week’s Market Overview Highlights:

• Market Focus Analysis: Strengthened hawkish expectations from the Fed, combined with escalating geopolitical conflicts, have driven global markets into a defensive posture. Precious metals have pulled back from highs, crypto assets have weakened in sync, and energy prices remain resilient. Uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate trajectory continues to dominate.

• Liquidity Analysis: BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows, with a clear slowdown in short-term capital inflows. However, total assets under management remain high, indicating long-term capital has not exited. Macro asset trading continues to dominate Perp DEXs, but overall trading volume has contracted, and CEX TradFi perpetual trading volume has declined sharply week-over-week.

• On-Chain Data Insights: DEX structures have seen a marked reshuffling, with liquidity further concentrating in leading and high-efficiency protocols, and Meteora rising rapidly. Overall stablecoin supply has stabilized, with marginal growth shifting toward protocol-based stablecoins. DeFi credit demand is returning to stablecoin arbitrage and capital turnover scenarios.

• Derivatives Tracking: BTC funding rates remain negative, with shorts in control, though signs of a squeeze have appeared in the latter part of the week. Open interest increased and then declined, reflecting overall deleveraging of leveraged funds. In the options market, the share of medium- and long-term contracts has increased, implied volatility remains high, and the market continues to price in uncertainty and downside risk.

• This Week’s Outlook: Focus on key data such as core PCE, GDP, and initial jobless claims, which will directly impact the interest rate path and risk asset pricing. Meanwhile, shifts in the geopolitical landscape and energy supply could further amplify market volatility.

• Institutional Updates: Gate Institutional Futures significantly outperformed the market, with spot and futures market shares increasing by 38% and 33%, respectively. The fee structure and market-making mechanisms have been further optimized, continuously enhancing liquidity and the trading experience.

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